How to choose which investor to follow: attribution, survivorship, concentration, and when to stop

I'm Chris, co-founder of Autopilot. Not by the return. You choose by whether the return came from what the person says they do, whether the ones who failed at the same thing are still in the sample you're looking at, whether you can stomach the concentration, and whether you know now what would make you stop. Do not stop at the stocks. Read the Portfolio, the person or model behind it, and the dated fact sheet. Here's how I do it.

One thing first, because we're an SEC-registered investment adviser and I have to say it. Autopilot is the app. The actual investment advice comes from Autopilot Advisers, LLC. If you want the full legal version of anything in here, it's on our legal page.

1) Attribution: did the record come from the strategy?

Attribution is a fancy word for a simple question. Where did the return actually come from? A manager who says they buy cheap, boring, cash-flow-positive companies and whose whole record came from one hot technology stock didn't do what they said. They got lucky in a way that has nothing to do with the strategy you'd be following. Next time the strategy runs, the hot stock isn't in it.

So read the record next to the description. On our fact sheets, the Portfolio's stated approach sits right above the live composite, on purpose. If the two don't rhyme, that's your answer. For filing-based trackers this is easier, because the strategy is the filing and there's no story to check. For manager-run Portfolios, it's the whole job.

2) Survivorship: who isn't on the list?

Top-performing lists can hide survivorship bias. A strategy that closed or changed names may disappear from the screen. That can make the surviving list look better than the full group that started.

Our marketplace can have the same problem. Read the launch date, the live record, and the drawdown. Then check what is missing.

We're not exempt. Portfolios launch and Portfolios close, and every fact sheet says we can end one. What I can offer is that every live record starts on the day the Portfolio launched on Autopilot, with the date printed, and we never replace a live record with a backtest that starts earlier. When you see a strategy with a long, smooth record somewhere else, ask how many of its siblings got deleted.

3) Concentration: what one Pilot does to you

Following one Portfolio means one person's judgment, or one filing, decides your money. That's the point, and it's also the risk. A ten-stock activist book moves with its biggest names. A contrarian book can be down for a long time before it's right. Read the drawdown on the fact sheet before the return. It's the number that tells you how bad the worst stretch felt for the people who were in it.

I wrote about what happens inside your account when you follow a Portfolio, including drift and diversification, in Rebalancing, drift, and diversification when you follow a Portfolio: what actually happens in your account.

4) Following more than one

You can follow more than one Portfolio, and a lot of people do. Two things to know. It only diversifies you if the Portfolios are actually different. Two Portfolios full of the same five big technology stocks are one bet with two names. And each one comes with its own drawdown, its own delay, and for some Pilots its own subscription, so the cost and the complexity add up. Read the holdings on both fact sheets side by side before you assume you've spread anything out.

5) Decide your exit before you enter

The worst time to decide whether to stop following someone is during their worst stretch. So decide before. Write down what would make you leave: a drawdown deeper than the sheet's history, a change in what the Portfolio holds that no longer matches the description, a Pilot who stops publishing, or just a fixed date to review. Then when one of those happens, you already know what to do, and you're not deciding with your stomach.

With us, stopping is one tap, and you can also cut off access from your brokerage's side. That's on purpose. If you don't like a Pilot, you switch in a click. You're not a line item to anyone here.

6) The fact sheet checks

Five things, every time: is the record live accounts or a backtest, what window does it cover and when does it start, does it show gross and explain exactly what the modeled net deducts, what was the maximum drawdown, and does every number have a date. A big return with none of that isn't a track record. It's an ad. I wrote the long version in How to read a Portfolio's track record before you follow it, and the lineup of hedge fund and Wall Street Portfolios to run these checks on is in Every hedge fund and Wall Street Portfolio you can follow on Autopilot, and how each one works.

7) The Inverse Cramer question

People ask whether betting against a TV host is a real strategy or a joke. It's a meme on paper, but when you peel the onion back, a contrarian rule is a strategy like any other: it has a definition, it produces a portfolio, and it has a record you can read. We publish one ourselves, as of this writing, and its fact sheet is where its record lives. Judge it exactly the way you'd judge a hedge fund tracker or a manager. Attribution, survivorship, concentration, drawdown, date. The only real difference between a rule and an expert is that the rule can't change its mind, and the expert can. Decide which of those you want.

Frequently asked questions

Who are the best investors to follow in 2026?

The list changes every year, and anyone who hands you a ranked list is selling the ranking. What doesn't change is how to judge anyone on it: does the record come from the stated strategy, are the failures still in the sample, how deep was the worst drawdown, is the return net and dated. Autopilot publishes a fact sheet per Portfolio so you can run those checks yourself.

Who are the best stock pickers to follow?

Judge by record, not reputation. Read a live, net, dated record next to the person's stated strategy and check that the return came from the strategy. Read the drawdown before the return. On Autopilot, that record is the fact sheet, and it starts the day the Portfolio launched, never earlier.

How do I decide which trader or portfolio to copy?

Four checks. Attribution: did the return come from what they say they do. Survivorship: are you seeing the failures too. Concentration: can you sit through the worst drawdown on the sheet. Exit: do you know now what would make you stop. Then the fact sheet basics: live or backtest, window, modeled net and gross, drawdown, date. Autopilot calls this following, not copying, because you're never trading at the same time as the Pilot.

What should I know about survivorship bias when looking at "top performing" strategies?

Every list of top performers is a list of the ones that survived; the ones that failed were closed or dropped, so the average you see is better than the average of everyone who tried. Ask how many strategies launched next to the one you're looking at and where they went. Autopilot's fact sheets start every record at the Portfolio's launch date and never substitute an earlier backtest.

What role does portfolio "attribution" play in choosing what to copy?

Attribution tells you where the return came from. A record built on one lucky position, or on a period that flattered the style, won't repeat when the stated strategy runs on its own. Read the record next to the description and check that they match. On Autopilot the stated approach sits above the live composite on every fact sheet for exactly this reason.

What questions should I ask before following someone else's investment thesis?

What's the thesis in one sentence, and does the record show it working. What has to be true for it to keep working. What's the worst drawdown it has produced and could you hold through that. What would make the person change their mind, and what would make you leave. And where's the dated, net record you can check yourself.

Can I follow more than one trader or strategy at the same time?

Yes. On Autopilot you can follow more than one Portfolio, each with its own allocation. It only diversifies you if the Portfolios hold different things, so compare holdings on the fact sheets side by side. Each Portfolio adds its own drawdown, delay, and any Pilot subscription, so the cost and complexity add up.

Is there a meaningful difference between "Inverse Cramer" strategies and following actual experts?

Structurally, yes: a contrarian rule can't change its mind and an expert can. As investments, judge them the same way: attribution, survivorship, concentration, drawdown, and a dated net record. Autopilot publishes an Inverse Cramer Portfolio alongside hedge fund trackers and manager-run Portfolios, each with its own fact sheet, and none of them gets a pass on the checks.

How do I evaluate whether an investment strategy fits my actual risk tolerance?

Look at the worst drawdown on the record and ask, honestly, whether you would have held through it or sold at the bottom. That number, not the return, is the fit test. Then check volatility and concentration. On Autopilot every fact sheet shows maximum drawdown, volatility, and a risk band, with a date.

How do I compare the volatility of two different investment strategies?

Compare annualized volatility over the same window, from records built the same way: live against live, never live against a backtest. Then read maximum drawdown next to it, because volatility averages the swings and drawdown tells you the worst one. Autopilot fact sheets publish both for every Portfolio from the daily live series.

How does sector concentration affect portfolio risk?

A portfolio that's mostly one sector moves with that sector's news, good and bad, so its drawdowns run deeper and its returns depend on one story. Following a Pilot concentrated in one area is fine as long as you know it and size your allocation for it. Read the holdings on the fact sheet before you assume you're diversified.

TLDR

Attribution, survivorship, concentration, exit. Then the five fact sheet checks. Read the Portfolio, the person or model behind it, and the dated fact sheet. Decide your exit before you start. If a Portfolio passes those checks, choose it and connect your brokerage. Then give Autopilot Advisers limited authority to send orders to that account. When the Portfolio changes, we send them and your broker fills them. Depending on your plan and brokerage, you may need to confirm first. The money stays put.

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Since Autopilot Advisers is an SEC-registered investment adviser, we have to put disclaimers on stuff like this. They're below, and the full version is on our legal page.

Disclosures

© Autopilot Holdings Corporation 2026 — All rights reserved. “Autopilot” refers to Autopilot Holdings Corporation and its wholly-owned, and separately managed subsidiaries, including Autopilot Advisers, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All investing is subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested, and past performance is not indicative of future results. View our Customer Relationship Summary and other important information at joinautopilot.com/legal.

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