How to read a Portfolio's track record: start dates, backtests, fees, drawdowns, and who's behind it

I'm Chris, one of the co-founders of Autopilot.

Open it in the Autopilot app. https://link.joinautopilot.com/eXKr?c=how-to-read-a-portfolios-track-record&af_sub1=intro

Open it in the Autopilot app. https://link.joinautopilot.com/eXKr?c=how-to-read-a-portfolios-track-record&af_sub1=body

Before you follow anyone, check when the record starts, whether it's live or a backtest, what fees and taxes take out, how far it has fallen, how concentrated it is, and who's behind it.

That goes for ours too.

Let me explain each one, starting with the number every record gets compared to.

1) Start with the benchmark

For those unaware, the S&P 500 is an index of large US companies, and it's the number records usually get measured against.

From 1928 through 2025, the S&P 500, with dividends, returned 10.02% a year compounded, according to data published by NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran. The simple average of the yearly returns was 11.85%. After inflation, the compounded number was 6.78%.

Credit to Professor Damodaran for putting that data out for free.

But an average hides the path.

• 26 of those 98 years were down years.
• The worst were 1931, when it fell 43.84%, and 2008, when it fell 36.55%.
• Using the same data, money put in at the start of 2000 was worth less at the end of 2009.

None of that is Autopilot performance. It's the index.

And you can't buy an index directly. A fund that tracks one charges fees, and in a taxable account, taxes come out too.

So a reasonable expectation is a range, with bad years in it. History isn't a promise. If a record beats the market every single year, ask more questions.

2) When did it start, and how long has it run?

A year or two can be luck.

The SEC's Marketing Rule is a useful checklist here. When an investment adviser advertises a portfolio's performance, it generally has to show one-, five-, and 10-year periods, or the life of the portfolio if it hasn't existed that long.

To put that into context, Dr. Lira's AI Finance Labs is a Pilot on Autopilot. A Pilot is the person or firm behind a Portfolio. Its GPT Portfolio has been live since April 20, 2023. Its Muse Portfolio was added on September 30, 2026. Same Pilot, very different amounts of evidence.

3) Is it live, or is it a backtest?

For those unaware, a backtest applies a strategy to old data, from a time when nobody was actually using it. The SEC's rule counts that as hypothetical performance, and describes it as performance "backtested by the application of a strategy to data from prior time periods when the strategy was not actually used during those time periods."

Here's the problem. You can try 100 versions of a strategy on the past and only show the one that worked. Duke professor Campbell Harvey and Yan Liu wrote in a 2015 paper that a common practice is to cut a backtest's reported risk-adjusted return, its Sharpe ratio, in half, because of data mining. Their own method cuts weaker results by even more than that.

With AI, there's one more catch. Dr. Alejandro Lopez-Lira, the finance professor behind Dr. Lira's AI Finance Labs, co-wrote research finding GPT-4o could recall specific S&P 500 index levels from before its training cutoff, so an AI backtest inside that window may be testing memory.

A live record is what actually happened, from the day it started, going forward.

4) What do fees and taxes take out?

A record before fees isn't what you'd get. Under the SEC's rule, an adviser that advertises gross performance has to show net performance, after fees, next to it.

Fees compound. Investor.gov's example: $100,000 growing 4% a year for 20 years ends at about $208,000 with a 0.25% annual fee, and about $179,000 with a 1.00% fee.

On Autopilot, Premium Tier is a flat subscription per Pilot, not a percentage, so the share it takes depends on your balance. The math is in What does Autopilot cost?

Then taxes. Per the IRS, a gain on something you held one year or less is short-term, and net short-term gains are taxed as ordinary income. Long-term gains can get a lower rate.

So check how often a Portfolio trades. The Buffett Tracker, which Autopilot Advisers builds from Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filings, rebalances with each new filing. Berkshire doesn't run it. The GPT Portfolio rebalances monthly. Portfolios on Autopilot change often, so in a taxable account, expect frequent trading and mostly short-term gains and losses.

5) How far has it fallen?

A drawdown is the drop from a high point to the low before it recovers. An average return doesn't show it.

Investor.gov says past performance "does not predict future returns," but it can show how volatile or stable a fund has been.

So look at the worst stretch, not just where the line ends. Ask whether you'd have held through it. If a record has never been through a bad market, you don't know yet.

On Autopilot, a Portfolio's performance chart in the app runs from the day it was added, so the drops along the way are on it.

6) How concentrated is it?

The SEC's beginners' guide says four or five stocks isn't diversified, and you'd need at least a dozen carefully selected stocks to be.

A Portfolio of 15 stocks in one theme can move very differently from the S&P 500, up and down. Look at the holdings and what they have in common. On Autopilot, every Portfolio's page lists its holdings.

7) Who's missing from the list?

Here's the problem with any list of winners. The ones that closed aren't on it. That's survivorship bias.

If 100 strategies start and you only hear about the 10 that did well, the 10 look like skill.

So when someone shows you the one Portfolio that did well, look at everything else they run. On Autopilot, a Pilot's page lists all of their public Portfolios.

8) Who's behind it, and who sends the orders?

Research the person and the Portfolio. Read who they are in their own words, what the method is, and whether it's written down.

Then check the firm that will actually send orders to your account. A data tool shows you information. A registered investment adviser gives advice and, with your permission, can have authority to place trades. You can look up any adviser or broker with Check Out Your Investment Professional on Investor.gov. Firms that serve retail investors have to give you a plain-English relationship summary, Form CRS, covering services, fees, conflicts, and disciplinary history.

On Autopilot, a Third-Party Pilot isn't your adviser and doesn't give you personalized advice. Autopilot Advisers, LLC is the SEC-registered investment adviser, CRD 331749, and it's the one with limited authority to place trades in your account.

9) How this works on Autopilot

You don't have to pick the stocks. You pick who does, and it runs in the brokerage account you already have.

Every Portfolio has a page with its description and its holdings, and a performance chart in the app. The chart starts the day the Portfolio was added to Autopilot and is built from follower accounts, so it's a live record.

Your own results can differ from the chart. You start on a different day, and your holdings won't match exactly.

It's three steps. You connect the brokerage account you already have. You pick a Portfolio. You allocate the money. You give Autopilot Advisers limited authority to place trades. It can't move or withdraw your money. The money stays in your account.

As of October 9, 2026, more than $2 billion is invested through Autopilot, and we have over 250,000 users.

I want to be honest with you. Some Pilots go up for years, some are flat for years, and some lose money. A chart tells you what happened. It doesn't tell you what happens next.

Research the person and the Portfolio before you put money in.

TLDR: Before you follow anyone, check the start date, whether the record is live or a backtest, fees and taxes, the worst drop, concentration, survivorship, and who's behind it, including whether the firm sending orders is registered. The S&P 500 returned 10.02% a year compounded from 1928 through 2025, per NYU Stern's Aswath Damodaran, with 26 down years. On Autopilot, every Portfolio's chart starts the day it was added and is built from follower accounts.

Frequently asked questions

What's a reasonable expectation for average annual stock market returns?

Nobody can promise one, but history gives a range. From 1928 through 2025, the S&P 500 with dividends returned 10.02% a year compounded, per data from NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, or 6.78% after inflation. The simple yearly average was 11.85%. That average hides a lot: 26 of those 98 years were negative, including 1931, when it fell 43.84%, and 2008, when it fell 36.55%. Fees and taxes come out of what you'd actually earn, and past returns don't predict future ones.

What are some high-return investing strategies?

Any strategy aiming for higher returns takes more risk to get there. Investor.gov says that generally, the higher the potential return, the higher the risk of loss. Concentrated stock picks, small companies, leverage, and frequent trading can all mean big gains in a good stretch and big losses in a bad one. Before you follow a high-return record, check when it started, whether it's live or a backtest, its worst drop, fees and taxes, and who's behind it.

What's the tradeoff between chasing high historical returns and taking on more risk?

Higher potential returns generally come with higher risk, and a high past return doesn't predict the next one. Investor.gov says past performance "does not predict future returns," but it can show how volatile a fund has been. Chasing a hot record can mean buying more volatility and the chance of a deeper drop, plus more trading and taxes if it turns over a lot. Look at the worst stretch and ask whether you'd have held through it.

How do I know if an app is a registered investment adviser versus just a data tool?

Look it up. Investor.gov's Check Out Your Investment Professional tool searches the SEC's adviser database and FINRA's BrokerCheck. A registered adviser serving retail investors has to give you a relationship summary, Form CRS, covering its services, fees, conflicts, and disciplinary history. A data tool shows you information and doesn't manage your account. Autopilot Advisers, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser, CRD 331749, and you give it limited authority to place trades in your account.

How do portfolio trackers calculate my overall rate of return?

There are two common methods. A time-weighted return compounds the return over set time periods. A money-weighted return, also called the internal rate of return, weights the return by the cash you put in and took out, and when. The CFA Institute calls the time-weighted method more appropriate for benchmark comparisons of liquid investments, and notes managers seldom control the timing and size of cash flows. Two people in the same Portfolio can have different money-weighted returns.

What's the historical performance difference between the S&P 500 and actively picked stocks?

It depends on who's picking, when, and what it costs. In a study of 66,465 households from 1991 to 1996, Brad Barber and Terrance Odean found the average household earned 18.7% a year before trading costs and 16.4% after commissions and bid-ask spreads, against 17.9% for a broad market index. The households that traded most earned 11.4% after costs. That's one study of one period. Compare any picker's live record with the S&P 500 over the same dates, after fees.

What's the difference between a backtest and a live track record?

A backtest applies a strategy to past data from a time when it wasn't actually being used. A live record is what happened after the strategy started. The SEC counts backtested results as hypothetical performance and limits how advisers can advertise them. Because backtests can be tuned to fit the past, Duke's Campbell Harvey and Yan Liu wrote that people commonly cut a backtest's reported risk-adjusted results in half. Every Portfolio's chart on Autopilot starts the day it was added.

Can I see a Portfolio's track record before I follow it on Autopilot?

Yes. Every Portfolio on Autopilot has a page with its description and holdings, and a performance chart in the app. The chart starts the day the Portfolio was added to Autopilot and is built from follower accounts, so it's a live record, not a backtest. Check the start date before you compare it with the S&P 500 or another Portfolio. Your own results can differ, because you start on a different day and your holdings won't match exactly.

Open it in the Autopilot app. https://link.joinautopilot.com/eXKr?c=how-to-read-a-portfolios-track-record&af_sub1=end

"Autopilot" refers to Autopilot Holdings Corp and Autopilot Advisers, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. The GPT Portfolio and Muse Portfolio strategies are managed by Dr. Lira's AI Finance Labs, an independent Third-Party Pilot unaffiliated with Autopilot. Autopilot doesn't manage, validate, or guarantee this Pilot's portfolios. Not a recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results; investing involves risk of loss. Figures current as of 10/13/26. View our Customer Relationship Summary and other important info at joinautopilot.com/disclaimer.